December 27, 2024 – Islam Tekushev
THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY A FOREIGN AGENT, MEDIUM-ORIENT, OR RELATES TO THE ACTIVITIES OF A FOREIGN AGENT, MEDIUM-ORIENT.
PRAGUE, December 27, Caucasus Times. Two days after the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan, two key questions remain unanswered: what caused the crash, and why did the plane make an emergency landing over 400 kilometers from Grozny, in Kazakhstan?
Speculation has centered on theories involving Russian air defense systems and why the plane did not land at one of the Russian airports in the South.
Three Theories About the Plane Crash
On December 25, the Embraer E190 aircraft operated flight J28243 from Baku to Grozny. After two unsuccessful attempts to land at Grozny Airport, the aircraft sustained mechanical damage that made controlling it significantly more difficult. Consequently, the crew initially set course for Baku but then diverted to Kazakhstan for reasons yet unknown. The plane reached Aktau on the Caspian Sea coast, where it crashed, breaking apart upon impact and catching fire. Onboard were 67 people, 38 of whom perished, including both pilots.
Investigators in Kazakhstan are considering three main theories for the incident:
- Damage to the tail section, possibly caused by missile fragments.
- Bird collision.
- Technical malfunctions or an oxygen tank explosion prior to landing in Aktau.
Videos circulating online shortly after the crash show mechanical damage to the plane’s exterior resembling marks from an air defense system. This theory, linked to possible Russian air defense interference, has drawn growing attention.
Sources from Reuters in Azerbaijan, familiar with the preliminary investigation results, claim that this theory seems the most plausible. Azerbaijan shares this viewpoint and expects an official statement from Russia. One source remarked, “No one is claiming it was deliberate. However, given the established facts, Baku expects Russia to acknowledge its involvement in the incident.”
Russian officials, on the other hand, urge caution in drawing conclusions. Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday advised journalists to refrain from speculation until the investigation is complete.
Eyewitness Accounts
Statements from passengers who survived the crash further support the theory of missile impact. As reported by the BBC, survivors recall hearing an explosion during one of the landing attempts in Grozny. Subkhonkul Rahimov, a passenger, stated, “The pilots tried to land the plane three times in Grozny, but during the third attempt, something exploded. It wasn’t inside the plane, but the paneling next to me tore away.”
Why Aktau?
The decision to divert the plane to Kazakhstan instead of nearby Russian airports has raised many questions. The North Caucasus region has three international airports—in Mineralnye Vody, Vladikavkaz, and Nalchik—that would logically appear more suitable for an emergency landing given their proximity to the flight route.
After the incident, which passengers described as an explosion and the crew as a loss of control following a bird collision, the plane headed toward Aktau. However, it might not have done so immediately.
The head of Grozny Airport, Alvi Shakhgiriev, told Regnum that the crew initially intended to fly to Baku before changing course for Aktau. This account aligns with reports from the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, which published alleged excerpts from the crew’s communication with air traffic controllers. In the transcripts, the crew inquired about weather conditions at airports in Mineralnye Vody and then mentioned plans to head to Makhachkala. At the same time, the crew reported a new malfunction—a hydraulic failure affecting the plane’s controls. After some time, the plane contacted air traffic controllers in Rostov-on-Don, according to the Telegram channel.
What happened next remains unclear, as there is no information about attempts to land at other airports. Nearby options included Vladikavkaz, Nalchik, and Nazran. Yet, the captain chose to cross the Caspian Sea and attempt to land in Aktau, over 400 kilometers away. The reason for this decision remains unknown. Euronews, citing sources in the Azerbaijani government, reported that damaged aircraft were allegedly denied permission to land at Russian airports despite the crew’s requests for an emergency landing. This contradicts established practice, as captains of distressed planes are typically not refused landing permission.
The Role of the Kazakh Minister of Transport
Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, stated at a Thursday briefing that an oxygen tank exploded onboard the aircraft before landing. He claimed that this occurred after air traffic controllers in Rostov handed over the distressed plane to their counterparts in Aktau. “At 10:53 local time, Rostov’s flight operations director informed Aktau’s director of additional details—that an oxygen tank had exploded in the passenger cabin, passengers were losing consciousness, and medical aid was requested upon landing,” the minister explained.
Messages citing Karabayev’s statement were shared by Russian news agencies, which omitted any mention of the missile strike theory. If such an explosion occurred, its impact on the aircraft’s control systems remains unclear.
By the time the aircraft appeared on Flightradar24’s map, it was over the sea, heading toward Aktau. Data from the service indicates that the plane continuously changed altitude and direction, possibly due to control system failures. The tail section, critical for ascent and descent, showed numerous small holes in photographs, and these damages could have led to the loss of control.
During the final moments of the flight, the pilots attempted to land at Aktau Airport. Their first approach was unsuccessful, and they attempted another, which also failed. The plane ultimately crashed.
Hope for an Objective Investigation
The investigation is being led by a Kazakh governmental commission. A government statement confirmed Kazakhstan’s cooperation with Azerbaijan.
As noted by the BBC, aviation accident investigations typically involve representatives from the country where the incident occurred, the state of aircraft registration, and the manufacturer. The Embraer E190AR was built in Brazil.
Since the incident began over Russian territory, Russian specialists will also participate in the investigation. However, as a source in the Kazakh government told the Caucasus Times, the primary investigation will be conducted by Kazakh officials, raising hopes for objectivity.
Nonetheless, it is not ruled out that Russian authorities may exert pressure on Kazakh officials to keep the investigation results from the public.